A trend is a stable, evolving over time process of changes in technological structures, economy, society, ecology, etc., affecting the industry in the long term. The influence can be both positive and negative. The creation of new technologies, changes in legislation and social order are often a reaction to emerging opportunities and impending threats that a trend can lead to.
According to the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements, organic farming was practiced in 186 countries in 2018. On the eve of the new millennium, in 1999, only 11 million hectares were organic agricultural land in the world. Almost twenty years later, in 2018, 71.5 million hectares became organic agricultural land. In 2018, the most organic agricultural land was in the following regions of the world: Oceania (36 million hectares, which is half the world's agricultural land) and Europe (15.6 million hectares, 22%).
Latin America has 8 million hectares (11%), followed by Asia (6.5 million hectares, 9%), North America (3.3 million hectares, 5%) and Africa (2 million hectares, 3%).
Despite an almost sevenfold increase in the area of organic agricultural land from 1999 to 2018, the share of organic land in total agricultural land was only 1.5% (in 2018). In parallel with the expansion of organic land, the area of reserved and other non-agricultural land increased: 4.1 million hectares in 1999 and 35.7 million hectares in 2018. The number of organic producers increased from 200,000 in 1999 to 2.8 million in 2018. The market for organic products was estimated at 15.1 billion euros in 2000 and 96.7 billion euros in 2018.
In 2018 alone, the area of organic agricultural land worldwide increased by 2.02 million hectares or 2.9%. The increase occurred in all regions of the world. In two countries, organic land increased the most: in France, "organic" increased by 16.7 percent (more than 0.27 million hectares) and in Uruguay, by 14.1 percent (almost 0.24 million hectares).
Organic Agriculture in Kazakhstan is actively developing. According to the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements in 2018, Kazakhstan was in 37th place by area of organic agricultural land from 186 countries where "organic" is developing. The leader of the rating is Australia, where 35 687,799 hectares are allocated to organic land, let's recall that in the world 71 514 583 hectares - "organic".
Products of organic agriculture from Kazakhstan are supplied to the European Union countries. From 115 countries, which export organic products to the EU, Kazakhstan is on the 15th place. The leader of this ranking is China, which supplied to the EU 415 243 tons in 2018.
Kazakhstan experts, in the course of foresight sessions, identified two microtrends of greening of the industry: "the growing need for recycling of animal and poultry waste" and "increasing demand for environmentally friendly packaging in the food and processing industry, increasing recycling and convenience of packaging".
We have seen that organic farming is steadily gaining strength and popularity in the new millennium. The agricultural industry of Kazakhstan has already found its place in this global movement. We can confidently say that this trend will only increase under the pressure of new ideas of generation Y and Z.
Agriculture is finally entering a new technological era. The pressure of digitalization on the industry is growing all over the world. While agricultural industry players are still confused and cautious about changes and new technologies, there is already a need to develop a digitalization strategy for the industry to stay on the crest of the wave in the future.
Smart farming methods are already in use: differential application of fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, determining optimal planting times, for example, with Microsoft's Cortana Intelligence Suite, robots and artificial intelligence in dairy production, electronic field maps, unmanned tractors for ploughing fields, drones for identifying weeds and robots for removing them.
Agribusiness around the world is increasingly interested in ensuring that the innovations of the Fourth Agricultural Revolution are developed and implemented faster and on a larger scale. The growing demand for food can only be met by using new technologies.
For example, AgFunder, a Silicon Valley venture capital company, focuses on agrifood technology startups with more than 75,000 members and subscribers worldwide. The company's technology department has built a knowledge base of nearly 30,000 agrifood technology startups and is developing artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms to help the company's investment team identify new investment opportunities as fully as possible. With AgFunder's help, 499 agricultural technology companies raised $4.6 billion in investment in 2015, nearly double the amount they invested in 2014.
Another example from Europe. The UK Secretary of State for Business recently announced a £90 million investment to implement a "technical revolution" aimed at transforming food production, placing the UK at the "forefront" of sustainable agriculture. Greece has announced the digitization of agriculture, with special emphasis on Big Data and the Internet of Things. Most of the investment will be in the development of "smart" technologies, their use will increase exponentially in the next ten years. Similar agrotechnological revolutions are predicted around the world, for example in Japan, other parts of Asia, Ireland and Australia.
Kazakhstan experts of agricultural industry, during the foresight sessions, also noted "growing demand for digitalization" as an important industry trend. Microtrends were highlighted: "the growing demand for the implementation of software to monitor the entire process chain", "the growing demand for robotization in the food and processing industries".
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service shows that the cumulative factor productivity (CFP) of the global industry is not growing fast enough to meet the steadily increasing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy needed in 2050. Worldwide, CFP is growing at an average annual rate of 1.63 percent. In order to double agricultural production (2010-2050) at the expense of productivity growth, the CFP rate must be 1.73 percent. If farmers continue with outdated farming practices - using more land and water resources to increase production - this will inevitably place even greater pressure on natural resources already threatened by climate change. The key to sustainable growth is more efficient use of land, labor and other resources. Innovations have two main objectives: to increase the efficiency of agricultural production and to preserve and conserve natural resources.
Kazakhstan experts in the course of foresight sessions identified microtrends aimed at increasing economic efficiency of the industry: "growth of cooperation of domestic agricultural producers", "growing demand for domestic breeds of cattle and MRS, the need for their breeding and selection", "the growing need to expand the market of Kazakh agricultural products", "the growing need for affordable and understandable financial instruments for agriculture", "diversification of agricultural production: the growing need to develop domestic beekeeping as an export-oriented industry.
For Kazakhstan, the most optimal solution that is already gaining momentum is the development of "green" agriculture. It is in the development of this trend that the industry is likely to concentrate its efforts in the near future.
Agriculture in the 21st century must meet several formidable challenges: to meet the growing food demand of the growing world population, to preserve the available land, water and biological resources and to protect them from total depletion and to do all this against the backdrop of global warming.
Kazakhstan experts noted the importance of technological updating of the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan during the foresight sessions. Agriculture should become one of the main drivers of economic growth of the republic, that is why scientific and technical component of the industry should provide agricultural producers with new modern domestic technologies and scientific specialists (microtrend "Growing need in results of domestic scientific developments for agriculture"). Let's look at the example of the next industry trend - "The growing demand for digitalization of the agricultural industry" - the relationship between "Numbers" and the agricultural industry.
Generation Z is a new generation that is entering the labor market and a new generation of consumers. People of Z, let's call them that, are very different from the postwar generation, Generation X, and even the Millennium Generation.
First of all, their values.
Let's take a closer look at who these people are and how they differ from the American segment of this generation. Currently, Generation Z represents more than 25 percent of the total U.S. population (Generation Z is now more than Babyboomers or Millenials). This is the most ethnically diverse and technologically immersed generation in U.S. history. Today, in 2020, they will account for 40% of all consumers. Someday, they will have the greatest purchasing power.
Why are these people different from other generations? Z-Men were born in a culture dominated by social media with access to technology and information, they have a much broader view of the world and a deeper understanding of the cultural and environmental burden on their shoulders. This generation is not chasing things or impressions, they clearly understand that consumerism about nature destroys the balance of planetary ecosystems, and on a personal level brings more discontent and frustration.
How do new generation values influence their consumer behavior? Barclays research shows that Generation Z consumes 57% more tofu and 550% more non-animal milk (e.g., soy or almond milk) than the Millenials. Many of these are part of a growing movement of "flexitarians," who consciously choose only periodic consumption of meat and animal products. Almost 65% of Generation Z people believe that plant foods are more attractive and 79% are more likely to stop eating meat at all or reduce their consumption to 1-2 times a week. According to Hartman Group2 research, as high school students move on to high school, they become more likely to eat plant-based foods. Hartman believes that this trend will not weaken over time, and the popularity of plant-based foods will only increase.
If you understand the consumer preferences of the new generation, it will be clear how to feed the world in the future.
Kazakhstan experts, during the foresight sessions, noted the impact of changing consumer preferences on agriculture in Kazakhstan. The following microtrends were singled out: "the growing demand for healthy, functional nutrition", "the growing popularity of household products (Kraft production, production in small batches)".
The profitability of the construction industry in the world has remained unchanged or even declined over the past 25 years. KPMG surveyed 109 CEOs of companies involved in capital construction projects. According to the data collected, 69% of respondents said that poor contractor performance is the only main reason for low profitability of the project. According to Autodesk and Dodge Data & Analytics, 66% of general contractors incur additional costs associated with overtime / second shifts; and three quarters of each project is associated with additional costs, with half of all projects extending the work schedule. In the construction market, not only are large players usually represented, but also small companies that operate most often with low profitability and this fact prevents them from investing in new technologies that would lead to long-term productivity gains. The growing cost of skilled labor in an industry that is still labor-intensive also reduces overall profitability. Delays in project implementation and the resulting cost overrun are usually the result of mistakes in project organization, low risk management and planning. However, the construction industry has developed a resource for extensive development, coming to a line beyond which there are only two ways - technological renewal or stagnation and decline. In free societies with developed market economies, the choice is always in favor of large-scale technological renewal.
According to forecasts, agriculture will experience a growing shortage of natural resources until 2050. Increased competition for these resources may lead to their overexploitation and unsustainable use, leading to environmental degradation. Moreover, this scenario may create a destructive cycle in which resource degradation leads to increased competition for the remaining available resources, which in turn will lead to further degradation of nature.
More than one-third (33%) of the world's agricultural land is depleted, with attrition rates ranging from moderate to high. Degradation of agricultural land has a particularly strong impact on drylands, affecting the quality of life of local people and ecosystems in these regions. To date, there are few opportunities for further expansion of agricultural areas. Moreover, most of the remaining land cannot be put into agricultural production as it will entail large environmental, social and economic costs. Rainfall and temperature values are predicted to vary significantly with climate change, all of which will lead to more frequent droughts. Smallholder farms, which are irrigated with rain in mountainous areas and the tropics, will be hardest hit. Such farms account for 80 percent of the world's arable land and produce about 60 percent of the world's agricultural output. In many areas with low rainfall, such as the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, as well as India and China, farmers use most of the water resources, severely depleting rivers and aquifers. Given these constraints, the rate of expansion of irrigation land is slowing down significantly (growth will be 0.1%). It is interesting to note that the area of irrigated land in the world increased at a rate of 1.6% worldwide from 1961 to 2009.
Kazakhstan experts, during the foresight sessions, also noted the "depletion of natural resources" as one of the key trends in the agricultural sector. The microtrend was highlighted: "growth in the number of polluted water reservoirs in Kazakhstan due to oil products and heavy metals".
Natural resources are not the only resource that is necessary for production in the agricultural sector. People living and working in rural areas are also vital capital.
The World Bank estimates that in many middle-income countries (Kazakhstan belongs to this group), as well as in high-income countries, the absolute number of agricultural workers has declined over time. The population in rural areas is predominantly adults and older people. Shortage of agricultural labor in some sub-sectors at certain points in time has become a feature of the agricultural landscape.
During the seventeen years of the new century, the share of agricultural workers in Kazakhstan has decreased from 36.12% in 2000 to 18.05% in 2017, according to estimates of the International Labor Organization, the same processes are occurring globally, in OECD countries and CIS countries.
Reduction in the number of employed in the agricultural sector against the background of growing demand for food products is a global trend. Whatever the specific answer to this challenge, measures to increase agricultural productivity must be at the heart of any solution. Investments in agriculture aimed at increasing profitability must be made in parallel with the process of labor withdrawal from the industry. Historically, in today's high-income countries, increasing agricultural productivity and investing in infrastructure, marketing and road building have contributed to the outflow of labor from rural areas. Competition between agriculture and other industries for workers has intensified. All this led to the fact that the level of salaries in the agricultural sector became comparable in other sectors of economy. A micro trend was highlighted: "reduced interest of rural youth in working in agriculture in Kazakhstan".
As we see, the reduction of the number of employed in agriculture will not become a serious problem in itself, if this trend is compensated by the increase of profitability of production with the help of introduction of new technologies.
Today, new technologies in construction are being developed more rapidly than ever. What just ten or twenty years ago seemed to be technologies of the distant future, today you can already see on construction sites around the world.
Unlike most construction companies that are still NOT making significant investments in new technologies, venture capitalists see the potential in new technologies for the construction industry.
In the summer of 2019, Brick & Mortar Ventures, LLC (San Francisco, USA)1 announced a $97.2 million investment in start-ups that specialize in architecture, engineering, construction, and facility management technologies. It is interesting to note that Brick & Mortar Ventures itself has raised the necessary funds from companies that are part of the "value chain construction".
This indicates that in fact, construction, as a business, as an industry, is already ready and extremely interested in major technological innovations. Among the sponsors of Brick & Mortar Ventures: special materials manufacturer Ardex; a giant in Autodesk software; building materials company CEMEX; Ferguson Ventures is the venture division of a huge American distributor of sanitary ware; FMI company specializing in management consulting for engineering and construction; Obayashi, a major Japanese construction company; Sidewalk Labs, which specializes in urban innovation (owned by Alphabet; launching Google) and United Rentals, one of the world's largest equipment rental companies.
On the example of one American venture company from Silicon Valley, which invests in construction technologies, you can demonstrate the dynamics of creation and penetration of new technologies in the construction industry.
Kazakhstani construction industry experts, in the course of foresight sessions, also noted "the growing need for new technologies and materials" as one of the key trends in the construction industry. For example, the following microtrends were highlighted: "The need for real-time monitoring of basic physical and mechanical properties of building materials with the help of digital technologies", "Increasing the speed of delivery of building materials through the development of UAVs", "Increasing the speed of monolithic work" and "Growth in the spread of modular architecture", "Transition to an independent system of conformity assessment of buildings, infrastructure structures".
Let us add from ourselves that new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are first of all digital technologies. Let's look at the next industry trend, "The growing demand for the digitalization of the construction industry," as an example of the relationship between "Numbers" and the construction industry.
The construction industry is finally entering a new technological era. The digitalization pressure on the industry around the world is only growing. Although construction industry players are still confused and cautious about changes and new technologies, there is already a need to develop a digitalization strategy for the industry to stay on the crest of the wave in the future. It is quite expected that construction companies have started by setting up innovative laboratories and launching the so-called "concept validation" research. (POC), in order to test the possible implementation options for new technologies without risking significant investments. But the possibilities of this stage have already been exhausted and the time for action has come to ensure long-term success in the future.
There are many opportunities to use "numbers" in your work! There are three specific areas for contractors in the construction industry:
As we said before, the penetration of digital technology in the construction industry is just beginning. So we're going to give a little forecasted statistics. According to the data of the World Economic Forum, within 10 years, a full-scale digitalization of work processes in the industry will help to save 0.7-1.2 trillion U.S. dollars (13-21%) in the design, construction and construction stages, and at the stage of operation the savings can be 0.3-0.5 trillion U.S. dollars (10-17%). Artificial Intelligence will help the construction industry increase profits by 71% by 2035, according to the Accenture consulting company. Artificial Intelligence in the construction industry is projected to reach $4.51 billion by 2026, according to the consulting company. For example, microtrends were highlighted: "Automation of development of design and estimate documentation" and "Implementation of technologies of information modeling of construction objects (BIM)", "Increase of use of Internet of things, sensors, united in smart networks".
The new generation of manufacturers and consumers is Generation Z. Young people of this generation like no one before attach great importance to the problem of ecology and the search for environmentally friendly solutions. According to Amnesty International, for young people climate change is the most pressing problem of our time. The new study "The Future of Mankind", which was attended by more than 10,000 people aged 18-25 from 22 countries, shows that 41% of respondents named global warming the most important problem facing the world. Moreover, young people believe that their governments should take the welfare of their citizens more seriously than economic growth (63 percent). Young people not only proclaim high conservation ideas but are willing to pay more for environmentally friendly products. And as Greg Petro, CEO of First Insight consulting company, notes: "Compliance with the principles of sustainable development is becoming an integral part of the purchase decision, this trend will only increase in every next generation of consumers.
The construction industry around the world is one of the largest consumers of raw materials and resources. According to the data of the American Institute Worldwatch, which is engaged in analysis of global environmental problems, 40% of stone, sand and gravel, 25% of wood and 16% of water in the world are used for construction of buildings annually. Large amounts of energy are used to produce and transport building materials and to construct the buildings themselves, all accompanied by the emission of large amounts of greenhouse gases. For example, in the European Union countries, construction, operation and demolition of buildings consumes about 50 percent of the total energy requirements and almost 50 percent of CO2 emissions are also used at all stages of the building life cycle.
A more detailed breakdown was provided by researchers from Hong Kong. They analyzed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by source, using the One Peking office skyscraper as an example. It was found that three sources (1. production of construction materials, 2. their transportation and 3. energy consumption of construction equipment) account for 98.6% - 99.2% of total GHG emissions. At the same time, the most CO2 emissions fall on the production of construction materials (81.6-86.7%), transportation of construction materials emits 6.1-8.4%, and energy consumption of construction equipment emits 6.4-8.6% CO2.
Existing problems of low environmental friendliness of the construction industry are balanced by the gradually expanding "green" movement in the industry. The most striking example of green building process is, of course, the so-called "green building" and related environmental standards (e.g. LEED, WELL and FitWell certification systems). Let's say a few words about the most well-known and widespread eco-standard LEED. This certification was developed by the United States Green Building Council (USGBC). The first standard was developed in 1998. Now LEED is an internationally recognized system for certifying green buildings. LEED certification confirms that a building has been designed and constructed using technologies that provide high levels of energy savings, water efficiency, CO2 reduction, indoor environmental improvements and resource efficiency. In 2018, the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) together with Dodge Data & Analytics released a report on global green building trends. The report was based on the expert opinion of 2078 architects, engineers, contractors, investors, consultants from 86 countries. According to the research results, the volume of "green" construction in the world continues to grow. Almost half of the experts are confident that the majority of their construction projects in the next few years will be exactly "green". According to Mahesh Ramanudjam, President and Executive Director of the U.S. Green Building Council, "green building is now a trillion dollar industry, and the popularity of "green" construction is spurred by the growing desire of people to live and work in environmentally friendly buildings. In the last 25 years LEED certification has helped to change the methods of construction. However, the ultimate goal of the green movement is to improve people's living standards, for which the entire volume of buildings in the world (already existing and under construction) must be brought into line with sustainable development requirements".
Kazakhstan experts, in the course of foresight sessions, also noted "growing need in sustainable development" as a key trend. For example, microtrends were highlighted: "Increased use of ecological building materials", "Increased need in recycling of construction waste", "Reducing energy intensity of production in construction".
Ecologization of construction industry is a growing trend. Some elements of this movement are a little more developed now than others. However, already now we can confidently say that this trend is a response to the challenges of the new time, and the need for ecologization will only increase under the pressure of new ideas of generation Y and Z.
Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that by 2030 construction worldwide will increase by 85% to $15.5 trillion1, with the three countries (China, the U.S. and India) accounting for 57% of global construction growth. Following the growing demand for construction, labor supply in the construction sector should grow. However, the situation is not quite simple. A recent study of two companies operating in the US construction business (Associated General Contractors of America and Sage Construction and Real Estate) found that almost a quarter (22%) of respondents believed that it would be difficult to find full-time and part-time workers in the construction sector. A 2018 survey of the construction market, conducted by the British consulting company Turner and Townsend International, showed that labor shortages are an increasingly common feature of global construction. The 2018 report noted that 27 markets in the world have experienced a shortage of skilled labor, which is more than in 2017.
Why is this happening? When considering the construction industry in economically developed countries, where wages are higher, employment opportunities are wider, and the proportion of young people is slowly declining (a phenomenon of demographic ageing), it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract young people to the construction industry. The answer to this challenge of time may be the widespread introduction of labor automation and technological re-equipment of the industry.
In countries with a different economic and demographic situation (low or low wages, high unemployment, a significant proportion of young population), the labor resources for the construction industry will remain sufficient. Under such conditions, labor automation makes no sense either economically or socially. Here the problem of quality of personnel training at all levels stands out: managers, engineering and technical personnel, workers.
The profitability of the construction industry in the world has remained unchanged or even declined over the past 25 years. KPMG surveyed 109 CEOs of companies involved in capital construction projects. According to the data collected, 69% of respondents said that poor contractor performance is the only main reason for low profitability of the project. According to Autodesk and Dodge Data & Analytics, 66% of general contractors incur additional costs associated with overtime / second shifts; and three quarters of each project is associated with additional costs, with half of all projects extending the work schedule. In the construction market, not only are large players usually represented, but also small companies that operate most often with low profitability and this fact prevents them from investing in new technologies that would lead to long-term productivity gains. The growing cost of skilled labor in an industry that is still labor-intensive also reduces overall profitability. Delays in project implementation and the resulting cost overrun are usually the result of mistakes in project organization, low risk management and planning. However, the construction industry has developed a resource for extensive development, coming to a line beyond which there are only two ways - technological renewal or stagnation and decline. In free societies with developed market economies, the choice is always in favor of large-scale technological renewal.
For the construction site to change and profitability to grow, new technologies are needed. Here venture capitalists come into action. It is venture capitalism that builds bridges between the results of scientific developments and the commercial implementation of new technologies. In 2019, the Wall Street Journal announced that venture capitalists were "pouring money" into start-ups that were using technology to make commercial and residential construction quicker and easier. According to research company CREtech1, investment in private companies that develop construction technologies has grown in the U.S. from $352 million in 2016 to more than six billion in 2018. There is a boom in investment in new technologies.
But no matter how fantastic the achievements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are, in the near future human participation in the work processes will not be completely excluded. Therefore, both on the construction site and in the office of architects, designers and designers will work people, professionals. Another question is whether the construction industry will be able to continue to attract the necessary number of specialists.
Natural resources are currently being depleted due to traditional and unsustainable mining methods. According to experts from KPMG, business efficiency of 96% of companies in the world will suffer due to shortage of raw materials. Therefore, the idea of mining in the city is already being developed. What does it mean? The world's deposits of raw materials have changed their location. Nature can no longer be the only source of primary raw materials for the production of construction materials. Anthropogenic structures (primarily buildings, infrastructure facilities, industrial waste) are the "deposits" of the new era. All this amount of man-made material can be recycled and put back into production. In order for the idea of urban mining to be fully realized, it is necessary that the production process of construction materials is transparent. In this regard, the role of architects acquires an additional function: they must be well informed about how construction materials are produced, whether they are suitable for further processing, and what the costs are for the production and processing of specific buildings. What are the costs of the materials, and what are the costs of operating and maintaining the facilities that are built with these materials, and what are the costs of demolition and disposal of these facilities. The past twenty years of the twenty-first century and the new industrial revolution have brought new people on the world stage - generation Z - carriers of new ideas. What do we mean? The post - millenniums are imprisoned on ecologization of production and in general on ecologization of human activity. Let's deal with it...
Once again, the construction industry in its stagnation has finally come to a certain point. The future prosperity or decline of the construction sector depends largely on how industry leaders in a particular country decide whether or not they will dare to go rubicon or not.
While in the U.S., the industry has already begun to actively innovate and venture capital has already flowed into the industry, in Europe the awareness of change is just beginning.
Construction in the UK is a vivid illustration of the global state of the industry. In February 2016, the government commissioned Cast Consultancy to study the current state of affairs in the industry. The general conclusion of the study is a call to "Modernize or die". If the programs and methods of training in construction specialties are not modernized, if there is no innovation in the industry, and if there is no culture of research and development (R&D), the construction sector will inevitably decline.
Why is modernization in the broad sense important when we talk about the approaching change of generations of specialists? Firstly, post-millenniums (Generation Z) already account for 25% of the global HR market, and this share will only grow every year. These are the specialists on whose shoulders the industry will hold the next decades. In addition, post-millenniums - the first generation is fully digital, they do not remember the time when there was no Internet, they are also called digital natives. Therefore, in order to employ Generation Z specialists, an employer must offer many technical capabilities. What do we mean by that? First, it is necessary to make the workplace "smart "1. No one doubts that the importance of smart technologies will only grow from year to year, and post-millenniums will become the generation that drives this market forward. Secondly, people of generation Z, as well as millenials, appreciate the opportunity to constantly improve their professional training, they are ready to continue studying after graduation. In what way? The answer - training, based on the application of virtual reality. This, in turn, will shift the focus from teachers to students themselves, who study in virtual or virtual-realistic mixed environment. In more detail, immersion virtual reality (VR), 3D game virtual and augmented reality (VR//AR) have great potential to enhance student participation, interaction and motivation in the learning process. Once in operation, post-millenniums should be able to improve their skills on an ongoing basis. An arsenal of training methods should include online training and even informative videos on YouTube about processes in the workplace or the industry at large. A construction company working with the most modern and "smart" technologies will be more attractive to the younger generation of specialists. As Chad Hollingsworth of Triax Technologies (developing IoT technology for the construction industry) explains, "Millenials have grown in tie-up with technology... They expect the new technologies to help them do their jobs better, to help them get rid of manual labor processes".
As part of this industry trend, Kazakhstani experts, during the foresight sessions, also noted "the growing need to modernize the vocational education system". For example, microtrends were highlighted: "The growing need to restructure and update training programs in universities and colleges", "The growing need to introduce short-term, narrow profile online education for retraining or professional development of workers.
We see post-millenniums reshaping the professional environment for themselves, for their values, but they are changing the game for everyone else.
The construction industry relies on two whales - civil engineering and building construction (residential and non-residential). All the variety of objects that is created by the construction industry is important and necessary for the economy and society as a whole, but the construction of housing and everything associated with it (finding a home, buying or renting, mortgages, etc.) occupies a special place in the daily life of all people. The change that came with the Fourth Industrial Revolution has also reached this part of the construction industry.
Up to a certain point, consumers have accepted that any real estate purchase/sale transaction is usually time and effort consuming, simply because there was no other option. The penetration of the Internet into the real estate market is also gradually changing consumer behavior: potential buyers and sellers are looking for faster and simpler digital solutions. Buyers on this platform can choose the layout of the house, choose the area of construction, with the help of virtual reality tools to adapt the house to their tastes and financial opportunities, learn the final cost of the house and do all this before construction begins. What does this give both parties to the deal? Construction companies get access to a large number of potential buyers, while reducing the burden on the company itself, as there is no need to contact directly with customers. Consumers get more control at the stage of house design, house price formation. And by the time the developer and the buyer start discussing the deal, both sides already have a clear idea of the parameters, quality and price of the product - the house, which facilitates and speeds up the process of selling and buying.
Construction companies are not the only ones preparing for technological changes in the property market. Credit institutions, another industry closely related to construction, is also in the process of significant change. Future-oriented lenders are not resistant to innovation. They quickly realized that online financial products based on technology have significant advantages. One such benefit is advanced analytics that can be used to identify and resolve misunderstandings between business and consumers. Lenders' expertise is still in demand, but technologies (data analytics) help lenders better understand their customers' needs and capabilities, and then "redesign" their products as customers with greater efficiency for both sides (lenders and customers).
Many credit industry insiders believe these technological changes will help them withstand the ever-changing housing market transaction process.
And now that technology giants like Zillow have moved into the credit industry by buying their own mortgage companies, more changes are expected. Startups in the real estate market are taking the iBuyer movement to a new level. First let us explain what the iBuyer movement is. Companies that work in the iBuyer model base their business on the use of complex algorithms for forecasting the value of individual houses. The main idea is that the company estimates the value of the house and makes an offer to buy the seller. If the seller accepts the offer, the company assumes the burden of ownership, marketing and resale of the house. The use of forecasting algorithms in combination with the traditional method of economies of scale allows such companies to buy and sell houses more effectively than it has been done so far by traditional methods.
The iBuyer movement, as a relatively new phenomenon in the market, continues to grow rapidly. In the fall of 2019, two major U.S. companies (Realogy and Home Services of America) in the real estate market launched a joint program ('RealSure'), under which Realogy's real estate agents will be able to offer a price to home sellers as soon as a sale announcement is placed. This offer is valid for 45 days, at the same time (all 45 days) the house will also be sold publicly by a real estate agent. We are seeing how the penetration of digital technology into the real estate market has spawned the iBuyer movement itself, which has fundamentally changed the way people sell and buy real estate, providing customers with a simpler and more convenient alternative to traditional house sales.
One of the directions of response to the environmental protection requirements is to reduce the harmful impact of combustion wastes of traditional energy sources. First of all, it concerns more complete combustion of energy resources and pre-burning of combustion waste. Secondly, it concerns the prevention of carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
Усилия Евросоюза и других развитых стран в сочетании с развитием технологий в конце концов приведут к достижению сетевого паритета (grid parity): под ним понимается такой момент, когда стоимость производства электроэнергии на основе органического топлива равна или уступает стоимости производства электроэнергии из возобновляемых источников. Традиционные и альтернативные виды энергетики развиваются различными темпами, существуют одновременно и в ближайшем периоде 20-50 лет процесс трансформации и доминирования одного вида энергии достигнут не будет. Существенные изменения последуют с наступлением эры повсеместного развития автотранспорта на электроэнергии и иных источниках энергии, не имеющих отношения к углеводородам, не ранее 2030 года, поэтому максимальное снижение доли углеводородов прогнозируется только к 2070 году.
По данным Всемирной ассоциации ветровой энергетики к 2050 г. мощности (ветровые электрические станции) ВЭС будут обеспечивать треть всего энергопотребления планеты. Особенно ветроэнергетика динамично развивается в азиатских странах – в Индии, Китае, где установлены ветроэнергетические установки общей мощностью более тысячи МВт. Некоторые страны близки к этому показателю уже сегодня. В Испании общие мощности ветроэнергетических установок за последние десять лет выросли почти в 7 раз. К началу текущего столетия в стране планируется восьмикратное их увеличение.
В настоящее время доля ВИЭ в производстве электроэнергии в Германии достигла 25% (после аварии «Фукусима-1», предусматривается доведение этого уровня до 40% к 2020-му и до 80% к 2050-му. К этому периоду в Дании показатель достигнет 85%. Говоря о потенциале ветровой энергии, необходимо отметить, что по данным европейской энергетической ассоциации, в 2012 г. европейские страны преодолели условный барьер в 100 000 МВт только за счет ветровых установок.
К 2100 году доля нефти и угля в мировом топливно-энергетическом балансе составит 2,1% и 0,9% соответственно, термоядерная энергетика займет десятую часть рынка, а более четверти всей мировой электроэнергии будет производиться благодаря солнцу. Причина таких изменений — постепенное снижение добычи углеводородов и переориентирование на строительство более чистых энергомощностей. Тем не менее, существует альтернативное экспертное мнение, что одна из предпосылок к снижению доли углеводородов в мировом балансе — это Парижские климатические соглашения, одной из главных тем которого было замораживание угольных проектов. Многие банки и финансовые институты заявили об отказе от инвестиций в угледобывающую сферу и энергетику. В случае изменения инвесторских предпочтений доля углеводородов снизит темпы снижения доли углеводородов в доле производимой энергии.
In 60-70 years. of the XX century in the world were actively built generation units, large size, that give more power to the output. For example, Ekibastuzskaya GRES 1 has a capacity of 4000 MW. Thermal, nuclear and powerful hydroelectric power plants are comparable in size to a medium-size plant.
Since 2000s, technological solutions related to the reduction of the size of power generating units have been implemented. This is expressed in the fact that power plants become mobile and modular, ie they can be assembled into large complexes, but each module can work independently. Some power plants running on renewable energy sources may also have a compact size, be transportable, but at the same time provide enough energy for autonomous maintenance of the house or a small business. Constant improvement of the efficiency of the units also makes them more compact. Giant power plants will not disappear, but will not be the only source of power generation.
The last decades have seen a global trend of stabilization and, in some cases, an increase in the share of thermal power plants (TPPs) in power generation. Thermal power plants operating by burning fossil fuel (coal, oil products or natural gas) remain competitive despite the development of nuclear and alternative energy.
Due to the risks of accidents at nuclear power plants and the high cost of rare earth metals used in wind power, the share of heat power in the global energy balance may increase in the future. The main problems of modern thermal power plants are low efficiency of conversion of thermal energy into electricity during fuel combustion and insufficient maneuverability (inability to quickly change the power output to the grid). New technologies and materials will make it possible to overcome these shortcomings in the coming decades and significantly increase the efficiency of coal, fuel oil and gas power plants.
The consumer should be able to choose an electricity supplier. In fact, the idea of international electricity trade, which the European Commission supported and which is now being implemented around the world, should be a step towards the creation of a high voltage continental grid, through which renewable energy can be transferred from one country to another.
The consumer should be able to choose an electricity supplier. In fact, the idea of international electricity trade, which the European Commission supported and which is now being implemented around the world, should be a step towards the creation of a high voltage continental grid, through which renewable energy can be transferred from one country to another.
Nuclear power generation generates about 11% of the world's electricity and has a huge potential for development, as NPPs are characterized by low carbon emissions into the atmosphere. An important condition for development of nuclear power is social acceptance: for nuclear power to emerge and develop in the country, society must accept it.
Nuclear power is one of the most cost-effective technologies capable of meeting the ever-growing demand for electricity, which also makes a huge contribution to achieving energy independence and security of supply. Throughout the production chain, the number of partnerships and cooperation agreements within nuclear power is increasing, helping to keep pace with high global demand.
Digitalization, automation and robotization are innovative processes caused by the acceleration of scientific and technological progress. In practice, these trends are very closely interconnected, as automats and robots without software are simply a composite of different materials - iron, plastic, photocells, etc.
Only a few decades ago, the computer was a purely specific device, aimed at solving a narrow set of tasks. It was a technical oddity. And now the computer or smartphone are essential elements of everyday life, almost indispensable items of prime necessity.
Transformation of consumer preferences will lead to a radical change of approach to work in the IT sector itself. IT companies will completely transfer their employees to remote work format. Advanced interfaces, cloud technology and the new digital reality will allow them to organize their work without the need to rent premises, equipment, transportation costs, etc. The most valuable employees will be those who have several key areas of expertise at once.
In general, IT professionals will be the most demanded employees in the labor market, but their skills and competencies will undergo fundamental changes.
It takes into account the pace and scale of IT penetration in all areas of the economy, medium and large businesses are a priori building up their digital potential. This is due to two powerful factors: unconditional economic benefits, and the need to ensure information security.
Gartner analysts predict that by 2023, 60 percent of large companies will be based on their own digital ecosystem, supported by in-house programmers and application developers, which will provide their activities both in the format of interaction with customers and internal and external business processes. Half of these businesses will generate at least 20 percent of their revenue through a proprietary digital ecosystem, a platform.
To keep up with the rest of the world, companies in all sectors of the economy need to develop long-term plans for digital transformation, involving qualified digitalization specialists in their creation and implementation. IDC predicts that 75 percent of all IT costs will be spent on developing platforms for product promotion.
90% of all enterprises in all sectors of the economy will switch to their own digital IT environment for further development in the digital economy.
The success of enterprises will depend on the availability of an extensive IT infrastructure that converges the complex ecosystem. These enterprises and organizations use cloud technology, AI and IoT, Agile and DevOps practices, digital innovation platforms and communities, and integrated data and monetization management.
Given the trend of intensive virtualization of life, the evolution of any industry company into a complex IT organization is a requirement of time. In other words, in the future, any company will be first of all an IT company, and after that, a manufacturer of products or services.
Lawn of Moore, which states that the density of transistors in the integrated circuit is doubled each year. This is due to the fact that the physical limits limiting further reduction of transistors' size have been practically reached during 1.5-2 years. 3 nm is the smallest step of microprocessors. But in Berkeley was created transistor in 1 nm.
Soon, doubling the number of transistors on circuits will be physically impossible.
At the same time, the growth of data volume and the need for fast processing make it necessary to further increase computing capacity.
Data operation is one of the key IT elements. Big Data, produced by a huge number of devices and users, is in itself just a set of bits to be transmitted and processed to become complete information. Just as they are generated, so are the tools for transmitting, storing and processing them. First of all, these are quantum computers. Data traffic is steadily growing and IT needs more and more powerful tools to work with them.
Australian scientists recently, in May 2020, have successfully tested a new technology that has brought the rate of data transfer over the Internet to 44.2 Tbps, through a standard fiber optic with a single integrated chip.
The technology, called microcomb, will allow you to download about 5 Tbytes of files or 50 movies in Ultra HD quality almost instantly. In the long term, this technology will be available to the public, but for now, due to its high cost, its main users will be data centers.
In addition to the increase in the number and activity of data-generating devices, the number of people and organizations using these devices is growing and the range of their needs is expanding. In its Digital 2020 State of the World report, We Are Social stated that at the beginning of this year the number of Internet users exceeded 4.5 billion people. - 59% of the world's population. 5.2 billion people use cell phones - 67% of the world's population. Active users of social networks are now about 3.8 billion - 49% of the world's population. The average user spends 6 hours 43 minutes a day in the network. This is more than 100 days a year.
The digital world has actually absorbed half of our life. We communicate in social networks, watch films and post videos, study, work, read books, buy clothes and products. If IT could meet the primary needs: for food and water, for recreation, for the continuation of the birth, we would be completely immersed in the digital reality.
Some futurologists believe that in the future, IT will inevitably acquire such abilities thanks to NTP in biogenic engineering, nanotechnology, etc.
The majority of user traffic (53.3%) falls on cell phones, 44% on computers, 2.7% on tablets. And for one person there are several devices.
IDC estimates that by 2025 the number of gigabytes per capita will increase by an average of 21% annually. And in the future, the growth rate will only accelerate. IDC experts believe that in 2025, the average Internet user will interact with data every 18 seconds on average, and the number of devices connected to the network per capita will increase to 15. Taking into account the population growth rate (approximately +1.1% per year), increased availability of communication means, as well as the inclusion of into a global information network of new generations, which by definition are technical users of a much higher level, the increase in the number of modern IT operators and the intensification of their activity will be constant trends up to 2035, and probably even after.
Whichever one of us is a consumer of data, diverse content. But at the same time, we also create this flow through various technical devices. And now technology has moved on. They generate content with little or no input from us, retransmit it into the digital world, and share it themselves.
The network of "smart" things has become a new reality that accumulates the bulk of the gross volume of data produced in the world. Laptop, smartphone, tablet, SMART-clock, "smart" glasses, all kinds of sensors in factories, street lighting systems, sewers and other devices are data generators.
There are over 32 billion devices connected to the IoT network in the world now.
They account for the majority of traffic. And their number is constantly growing. Moreover, they are increasing their activity. The range of data they collect is increasing, the speed of data exchange between them is accelerating, thanks to peripheral computing "smart" devices perform primary analysis, etc. With the development of AI, virtual and hybrid reality, quantum computing and other promising technologies, the volume of data will increase even more.
Well-known Israeli scientist Yuval Noah Harari in his book "Homo Deus" sets out the hypothesis that the XXI century will be the era of the formation of a new religion - datazima (from English. data - data), which will replace humanism.
The data, as Harari puts it, will be the center of the whole universe, traditional market institutions will disappear, and liberalism as the dominant type of socio-political system will collapse, as well as other species.
According to the forecasts of the company IDC3, in 2025, the total amount of data will reach 175 zettabytes - 175 * 1021. For comparison, in 2018, this number was 33 zettabytes. In this case, Big Data, coming from the Internet things will gradually increase its share in the gross data set. To better represent the scale of these values, imagine that you count up to a billion, adding every second by one, or just pressing a button once a second.
It will take you 32 years to reach a billion (109), 32 thousand years (human civilization exists less) to reach a trillion (1012). And to the quadrillion (1015) - 32 million years (mankind as a species exists less), to the quintile (1018) - 32 billion. years. The universe is more than 2 times younger. Its age is about 13.8 billion years. And we haven't even reached the sextillon, i.e. the 1021 sought. As a result, data transmission, storage and processing technologies will develop. The role of Data Centers and Cloud services is becoming stronger. In the near future, at least 30% of all data will pass through the so-called clouds. The resource of data storage is naturally less traffic. According to expert estimates, by 2023 the gross volume of all global data storage will reach 11.7 zettabytes. However, the IDC believe that only 1-2% of produced data are stored for a long time.
It turns out that the vast majority of data disappears. But with the development of IT, new means of data storage are appearing, which may allow in the future to store absolutely all generated data arrays.
In response to growing threats in the digital environment and stricter requirements for personal data security, new cyber security tools are being developed. Modern and future-proof cyberdefense methods such as hardware, biometrics and passwordless authentication are replacing the familiar password system.
Logins and passwords are an easy target for modern hackers, which is why IT companies have entered the trajectory of introducing new tools to ensure data security and privacy.
At the same time, the new cyberdefense tools also have weaknesses. For example, at the end of 2019. Years of IS specialists from Tencent Security showed how to unlock a smartphone protected by a fingerprint in 20 minutes.
At the same time, the new cyberdefense tools also have weaknesses. For example, at the end of 2019, security experts from Tencent Security showed how In 20 minutes you can unlock the smartphone protected by a fingerprint of the owner. Having photographed this unique biometric parameter left on the glass With water and processed it in a special mobile application, they printed physical copies of fingerprints on the device, costing only 140 dollars. They also opened the volunteer's smartphone.
It turns out that you can not completely exclude the possibility of external penetration, you can only minimize its risk, and the responsibility is largely on the users themselves.
The human factor also plays a role in this seemingly peculiar sphere. Therefore, increasing digital literacy of users is a fundamental prerequisite for maintaining cybersecurity. IT developers are constantly looking for vulnerabilities in modern technologies to prevent them. Defects are detected in operating systems, hardware and software, etc. Every year new PACs are released to the market to detect and respond to threats. In the IT sector itself, the changes in the field of IS related to the modernization of infrastructure and hardware and software base can be traced.
IT companies are consistently moving to cloud computing, which is gradually deactivating traditional cyber security tools.
Gartner notes that IT organizations now need to invest in employees, processes and tools to manage this rapidly changing environment, such as secure cloud access brokers.
Quantum computing can completely destroy the established paradigm of working with data, and super modern cryptographic protection means will be powerless before the capabilities of quantum computers.
In the future, after overcoming physical and engineering difficulties, they will easily be able to solve the problem. The most reliable means of protection can be overcome. For example, to crack the key cipher RSA-1024, which is currently used in many applications, a quantum computer will spend less than one day, while the current high-powered supercomputers will take hundreds of years to do so.
Optimizing quantum algorithms can further reduce this time. The invention of complete, powerful quantum computers will radically change the way cryptography is approached.
This trend implies a focus of technological progress on improving the cognitive and physical sensations of the individual.
Physical improvement allows to modify the innate physical abilities of a person by introducing or placing the technology inside or on the body (endoic exogenous technologies). For example, the automotive or mining industry uses wearable products to improve worker safety. In other industries, such as retail and travel, wearable products are used to increase productivity.
Modifications of this kind fall into four main categories: sensory magnification (hearing, vision, perception), appendage and biological function expansion (exoskeletons, prosthetics), brain improvement (implants for treatment of attacks) and genetic improvement (somatic gene therapy and cellular therapy).
Cognitive enhancement enhances a person's ability to think and make quick, optimal decisions, for example using information and applications to improve learning or new experiences. Cognitive magnification also includes some technologies in the brain magnification category because they are physical implants that deal with cognitive thinking.
In addition, human cyborgization involves the hybridization of the human body with AI through neurocomputer interfaces, genetic and bioengineering aimed at correcting deficiencies or increasing capabilities. According to some estimates, by 2100 in 90% of human body will be robotized.
In the distant future, the development of the above trends may lead to so-called digital immortality, when human consciousness can be immersed in a digital environment (so-called consciousness loading), and physical functions will be performed by bionic robots or synthetic bodies.
It should be noted that human improvement has several cultural and ethical implications. For example, the use of CRISPR (Human Genome Editing) technologies for gene enhancement has important ethical nuances. Therefore, the development of IT, bio-neuro-technologies in this direction should be carried out under strict supervision.
It captures an increasingly large part of our lives. We interact with the digital world almost constantly, with short breaks.
The logical consequence of virtualization is a complete immersion in the digital environment. Virtual factory twins already allow you to manage large production facilities through digital models. In the future this will be scaled to cities and territories, transport highways and entire regions of the world.
A natural continuation can be the creation of digital clones of each person, which first take on all kinds of manipulations of people in the digital space, and then become our full virtual profile.
In early 2020, a Samsung subsidiary introduced Project Neon - the so-called artificial people who are in practice digital avatars. Of course, the technology is still raw, but its potential, combined with universal AI or hybrid intelligence, is almost unlimited and could lead to a revolution in human digitalization.
Virtualization of life creates the risk of minimizing real contacts between people and each other.
Remote work, remote shopping, virtual travel, even virtualization of tactile contacts and sensations, which, in practice, are just algorithms in the brain, can be synthesized.
A digital avatar, thanks to neurocomputer interfaces and advanced technologies in bioengineering, can become a second "Self" for each person.
The trend generates many contradictions in society. The younger generation is happy to meet it, while older people take it with scepticism and sometimes as a threat. Virtual-synthetic relationships can replace the traditional social and domestic contours of human life and radically change the picture of the world, making its streets deserted.
Over the past 10 years, the frequency of cyberattacks has increased by 2.8 times. In 2009, according to a study by the University of Maryland (USA), cyberattacks occurred every 39 seconds5. And in 2019, according to international experts of Cybersecurity Ventures, already every 14 seconds.
In 2021, they predict that the frequency will increase to 11 seconds. Continuing this trend, by 2030, cyber attacks can be recorded every second.
Global economic losses from cybercrime are estimated to vary between $3 trillion and $6 trillion per year. By 2022, the WEF predicts that it could reach 8 trillion dollars per year.
Humanity as a whole and each individual is increasingly dependent on new technologies. Cashless settlements and online banking in household use, multibillion-dollar financial operations on the global stock market scale, data in individual user PCs, IT infrastructures of organizations, corporations and states, including defense, everything that in one way or another, directly or indirectly related to the storage and transmission of information becomes an object for cyberattacks, a means of extortion, blackmail or manipulation.
One of the most striking examples of hacker attacks on the financial system was the NASDAQ exchange hacking in 2013, when the data of almost 160 million credit cards fell into the hands of criminals, and money was withdrawn from 800 thousand accounts. Moreover, for $50, the attack on the financial system of NASDAQ. For $50, you could gain access to any card, including password and code for online shopping.
A modern hacker, by gaining access to your devices and AP, can radically change your life, turning you from a financially secure person into a bankrupt, from a respected member of society into a social pariah, from a law-abiding citizen into a criminal.
In 2015, The Impact Team hackers hacked into Ashley Madison's popular social network, whose audience consists mainly of married men and married women looking for a relationship on the side. Cybercriminals have made the entire user database of this resource publicly available, resulting in the collapse of marriages, family breakdowns and some settling scores with their lives. It should be noted that hackers published this information only after the network administration refused to close the site. Neither an average citizen, nor large companies, nor the state are insured from cybercrime. DDos-attacks, phishing, malware implementation and other types of cyberattacks may be subject to any users and organizations, any devices, networks and servers, ranging from home PC to missile defense systems. There is no doubt that as IT progresses, cyber threats will only increase. The development of AI, VR, AR and hybrid realities, digitalization is creating new spaces and expanding the horizons of hacking, increasing the danger of cyber warfare and making the global community increasingly vulnerable, and the problem of cybersecurity is becoming more important. However, the social-psychological aspect must also be taken into account.
Hacker movement is gaining popularity in the world, even a special term has appeared - hacktivism, which means the use of IT to promote ideas of political freedom, freedom of speech, information, protection of human rights, etc.
That part of hackers, who declared the fight for any ideals, becomes a kind of idol for modern youth. Many consider hacking for good purposes acceptable, and the activity of such organizations as Anonymous (an international decentralized network of activists and hacktivists) is necessary.
In this light, it is difficult to determine exactly what will and will not be considered cybercrime in the future. This may result in a clear boundary between legal interpretation and public opinion. In one way or another, the issue of cybersecurity will be one of the most important elements of the future agenda. And specialties related to IT-security in general are among the most demanded on the labor market of the IT-sector.
Their shape and scale are systematically changing, the focus can shift from PC to mobile applications, from sites to messengers and back.
Information is becoming an increasingly valuable resource containing more and more important personal or corporate data. As a result, people, companies and governments are ready to invest more and more in its protection and expect that this protection will be maximum and exhaustive, able to prevent any threat.
According to experts interviewed by EY6, the TOP 3 most dangerous for the private sector cyber threats include phishing, malware and cyber attacks to disrupt operations.
The key risks associated with this are leakage of financial and customer information, strategic plans or, directly, the loss of money.
For the government, the risks associated with cyberthreats are also very high and diverse. From transport management and social security to financial infrastructure and national security. And governments will not stop at any cost to ensure their cybersecurity.
Thus, in May 2019, real military force was first used to prevent cyberattacks. The Tsakhal Air Force launched a dotty strike on a building in Gaza City from which a hacker attack was conducted. Ordinary users may at any time encounter hacking into their social network account, bank account or email. The threats seem to be obvious, and the security and privacy of personal and corporate data is by definition necessary.
But to form a clear idea of how information will circulate in the distant future and whether data protection will be needed at all, is difficult, because the issue of privacy and corporate information has recently emerged in the polar currents.
The majority of ordinary users, of course, are in favor of privacy, traffic rules and device security. This position is categorically shared by the private sector and the state.
However, technical progress has led to the appearance of a category of people who are in favor of full disclosure of AP, cancellation of correspondence secrecy and free and free circulation of information. It is possible that in the future this will be the case, and the concept of personal data and privacy will simply lose its relevance, and all information generated in the world will be publicly available.
The most vivid and tragic example of the struggle for freedom of information is the story of the American Internet activist, IT-visioneer and talented programmer Aaron Schwartz, who was an ardent supporter of infinite and free circulation of information.
On January 6, 2013, he was charged with illegally downloading academic publications from the JSTOR Paid Digital Library database (an online aggregator of full-text scientific journals), which he was about to place in the free domain. The charges, including fraud, threatened Schwartz with up to 35 years in prison. Having admitted his guilt, he could shorten his sentence to 6 months. But on January 11, 2013. The 26-year-old programmer was found hanging himself in his apartment.
Internet activists made a large number of statements, and on January 26 of the same year, the Anonymous movement even hacked into the U.S. Corrections Commission's website, claiming that it was done in retaliation for the death of Aaron Schwartz.
The so-called dataists (followers of the concept of datayism, which advocates freedom of information, which in their understanding is the highest value) promote the idea that everyone should share all information about themselves and not keep anything secret.
It would seem that this idea is absurd and impossible due to human nature. But it is worth remembering how communism in the XIX century from a little-known doctrine has grown into a full-fledged global socio-political movement, which became an alternative to capitalism and denied the right of private property, the possibility of developing datayism from an ordinary concept in a large-scale social and information paradigm seems not so unreal. Although the ideological trend of datayism has only recently emerged, and few people know about it, in practice it turns out that we are putting more and more information about ourselves, whether arbitrary or not, in public space.
The current generation is pouring almost every action into the net, sharing their thoughts, emotions, experiences and plans. They gradually reject the very idea of personal information, gradually projecting the whole most part of their life into the public field. And older generations also do not think much about protecting their APs. Downloading any application or registering on any site, we do not read the agreement on providing AP, but simply click "agree". We have even stopped understanding what information we share with outsiders and programs. AI and neural networks are increasingly being used to make decisions in lieu of people, developing a crisis of trust and generating a need for ideas such as understandable AI and AI management.
According to experts from Gartner, this trend requires a focus on six key elements of trust: ethics, honesty, open-mindedness, liability, competence, sequence. NAPs such as the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) are adopted worldwide, encouraging evolution and setting basic rules and restrictions for organizations carrying out R&D in advanced intellectual technologies.
People trust and enable programs more and more. This is due to the opportunities they offer us. By opening up IT to the full, we will be able to transfer to digital algorithms the enormous burden that our social and economic system used to carry, and improve the comfort and security of life. For example, in his book "Homo Deus" YV Harari describes a hypothetical situation where Google, having access to our correspondence and queries in search engines, can identify an emerging flu epidemic in London in minutes.
In what way?
The program only needs to track the words that residents write in their messages, e-mails or typed in the browser, then compare them with a database of symptoms of certain diseases.
If Londoners on an average day mention in their correspondence such key words as "headache", "runny nose", "nausea", "chills" 100 thousand times, and today there was a spike of up to 300 thousand times, then the epidemic began. The only condition is that users need access to AP, including messengers, social networks, email, SMS messages, etc.
It would take weeks for the traditional health care system.
It would take weeks to record the trend of increasing morbidity, track contact persons, identify hot spots, etc.
The program, having access to our personal data, can do it all constantly, continuously and with a high degree of efficiency. Against the background of the COVID-19 crisis, such an opportunity does not seem absurd and unacceptable.
In the long run, humanity may well choose to give up privacy in favor of security and, moreover, survival.
On the other hand, voices in favor of privacy and correspondence secrecy are also strong. As a result, it is quite difficult to predict accurately whether AP protection and privacy will be the main priorities after 2035.
And yet, in the prospect of the next 10-15 years, the need to ensure privacy and confidentiality of personal data and personal life is likely to be one of the most powerful incentives for IT development.
Intuitive, visual approach to application development, simplification of this process as a working task based on the use of templates, ready-made modules, will allow developers of any skill level to create a web mobile applications with minimal programming experience.
This will lead to the fact that in the future, almost everyone who knows the basics of programming, will be able to create their own IT products. In the long term, this will provoke an explosive growth of competition.
As a result, the threshold to enter the industry in its low-skilled segment is reduced.
Of course, in order to create complex products it is necessary to have appropriate education and experience.
However, for the development of non labor-intensive products with the development of visual programming based on program design rather than code writing, serious in-depth skills will not be required in the future.
Democratizing technology means giving access to technical or business knowledge without extensive and in most cases costly training. The process focuses on four key areas:
The democratization of technology, often referred to as "citizen access," leads to an increase in the number of citizen programmers, citizen developers, designers, etc. The process focuses on four key areas: application development; data and analytics; design; and knowledge. For example, democratization would allow developers to create data models without having the skills of a data researcher. Instead, they would rely on AI-led development to generate source code and automate the testing process. Personalization of IT is also an important trend. Any product is no longer just thrown on the market, in the masses, but is carefully thought out for relevance to current needs.
Further interaction with customers is based on constant active personal communication, receiving feedback, monitoring of user experience, which in the future will grow into the so-called multi-experience.
Gartner points out that multiexperience replaces people who know the technology with people who are literate, trained in technology. In this trend, the traditional idea of the computer develops from a single point of interaction and includes multi-touch and multichannel interfaces, such as wearable and advanced computer sensors.
In the future, this trend will become what is known as the surrounding experience, but now multi-experience focuses on immersive experiences using augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), mixed reality, multi-channel human-machine interfaces and perception technologies.
The combination of these technologies can be used for simple AR overlay or for a complete immersion into virtual reality.
Equipment wear and tear is one of the serious problems of enterprises, having extremely negative impact on the economic results of their activity.
If we consider the branches of mechanical engineering, we can note a significant gap in the level of wear and renovation of production equipment between them. In the automobile industry, relatively new for Kazakhstan industry of mechanical engineering, the lowest level of wear and tear of production facilities and the highest level of their renewal are noted. The industry's antinyliders in the rating of wear and tear and renewal of production facilities are:
For effective work of the enterprises it is not enough to equip the workshops with modern machines and robotic complexes, to increase the level of professional training of the staff and the degree of mastering of the industrial equipment by them. It is necessary to adjust the process of work in such a way as to maximize the workload of industrial equipment and minimize its downtime, which leads to huge losses and increases the cost of manufactured products.
However, machine builders often face a situation when worn or deformed parts of mechanisms cannot be found, for example, were taken out of production. In this case, manufacturers either have to write off equipment that causes serious material damage, or use reverse engineering technology, for example, to create a copy of the necessary part. Reverse engineering allows you to quickly understand the design features of products or individual mechanisms and to digitally simulate the necessary modes of operation, while maintaining the basic parameters for further research. By combining reverse engineering and 3D printing technologies, it is possible to quickly establish production, for example, of industrial equipment parts that require replacement due to wear and tear or deformation.
Enterprises that want to meet market requirements and remain competitive must adapt to the ever changing needs and preferences of consumers. The most effective solution in this situation is to introduce automated flexible systems.
Production flexibility is understood as the ability of the enterprise with minimum time and labor costs to reconstruct within the existing technological capabilities to produce new products or its improved model.
The introduction of flexible production systems helps to reduce the need for qualified personnel, as well as increases the efficiency of industrial equipment.
With the introduction of flexible production systems the mobility of production increases, production capacities are used more rationally, there is an opportunity to expand the assortment of products, to reduce the terms of their production, to reduce the cost price of products due to the introduction of equipment with high level of automation. The main components of flexible production systems are:
It is not only the machine-building complex enterprises that are experiencing a high level of wear and tear at their production facilities. The high level of wear and tear of machinery and equipment in the most important sectors of the country's economy, such as mining, construction and agriculture, forestry and fish industry, against the background of a low coefficient of renewal of production facilities, is a potential opportunity for domestic machine-building companies to expand the range and volume of products.
At the moment, out of the available rolling stock fleet of domestic agriculture, only 16% of tractors and 46% of combines have less than fifteen years of service life. A similar problem has a rolling stock of railway transport: the wear and tear of locomotives is 64%, passenger cars - 58%, freight cars - 46%.
Despite the high wear and tear of the rolling stock in agriculture and railway transport, the level of domestic machine-building production in this direction is still at a very low level and does not cover the needs of these industries. All this opens up great prospects for the domestic machine-building manufacturers, who produce machinery and equipment for the sectors of economy, to develop this market.
Many materials used in mechanical engineering are obtained from irreplaceable resources. First of all, it refers to polymers, primary raw material for which is oil, and to individual metals.
At the same time, technological and operational properties of metal and non-metallic materials, which have traditionally been used in mechanical engineering, have reached their limits and no longer meet modern requirements.
Therefore, the creation of the latest materials with improved characteristics is one of the urgent tasks of modern material science. Moreover, the process of their creation is much faster today than ever before, which is associated with the rapid development of scientific and technological progress in general.
However, for the new material to be introduced into production, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of how this material will relate to the technologies and equipment used in the company, the requirements of design documentation.
In other words, it is necessary to determine the relationship between material - technology - construction - equipment at the stage of material creation. And the use of the latest materials by enterprises working in conditions of fierce competition to develop a fundamentally new and modernized products will be due to the expansion of structural properties of these materials, as well as the high potential of their industrial applicability.
The need for innovative engineering products is growing every year. This is dictated not only by the rapid development of scientific and technical progress, but also by the change of consumer preferences for the range, quality, environmental friendliness and functionality of the products.
In recent years, both in the world and in Kazakhstan, there has been an increase in demand for industrial and domestic robots, electric cars, unmanned ground and air vehicles, heavy-duty computers and intelligent sensors, for installation of alternative energy sources, etc. The demand for industrial and domestic robots has been growing. In recent years, there has been a steady trend of growth in the volume of innovative products of mechanical engineering - in 2019, amounting to 333.3 billion tenge, it increased compared to 2017 by 2.1 times.
The leader of the rating in the mechanical engineering industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan in terms of the share of enterprises that have carried out innovations over the past three years is the industry, whose enterprises produce computers, electronic and optical equipment, in terms of the share of innovative products in the total output of the industry - enterprises that produce cars, trailers and semi-trailers.
The current level of innovative activity of separate branches of mechanical engineering does not allow to meet the growing demand of business entities and population of the country for innovative products.
In this connection, the enterprises of these branches have to decide on the direction in which they will develop production in the nearest years: to establish production of innovative products, having entered the competition for entering the market, first of all, with Russian producers, for example, with robot machinery, or to find their unique niche.
Innovative technologies of the last decades have increased the role and scale of automation and robotization applications in the engineering industry. The demand for robotic technology is the answer to the increasing competition of companies to enter both domestic and foreign markets.
At the same time, the opposite effect is noted - the increase in the production of robotics and the expansion of the range of functional capabilities, increases the interest of enterprises to use robots in their production areas.
Automation and robotization of production areas, manufacturers seek:
Robots today are able to successfully replace industrial personnel who are engaged in hard physical labor, as well as work in hazardous and harmful conditions. The functionality of robots is indispensable in those phases where work involves monotonous and cyclic operations.
According to the International Federation of Robotics, the global market for industrial robots in operation reached 2.4 million units in 2018. It is predicted that by 2022, it will reach 4 million units with annual growth rate of 13%.
Unfortunately, the dynamics of robotics used at the enterprises of Kazakhstan has not yet been formed. However, since the production of industrial robots in our country has not yet been established, according to customs statistics, it is possible to estimate the trend of their growth in the domestic market.
The domestic market of industrial robots of Kazakhstan for the last three years has replenished by 152 units.
Of course, Kazakhstan shows modest results in the number of imported robots. However, the growth rates show that the demand for robotization of industrial enterprises is increasing and the process of introduction of robotic equipment in Kazakhstan has already been launched.
At present, the level of robot implementation in our country remains quite low. According to the data of the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in 2019, only 1.7% of the country's economic enterprises in general used robotic technology in their production areas. In the engineering industry of Kazakhstan robotics used 8% of enterprises. The highest level of robotization is observed in the production of machinery and equipment. The domestic machine-building enterprises most often use robotic manipulators for welding and painting works, as well as robotic assistants, which facilitate the work of staff to move cargo. In the automotive industry, robots help to mount seats, dashboards, wheels, etc.
Mechanical engineering belongs to the industries with high level of knowledge-intensive and technologically advanced; In the conditions of high competition for entering the consumer market, enterprises need to constantly increase the degree of structural complexity of products and expand the range of products, including custom-made (custom-made). To keep up with their competitors, enterprises have to reduce the time from development of design documentation of new products to the release of its first batch; Traditional production technologies are no longer able to meet these challenges. Dynamically developing "digital" production technologies come to help machine builders.
Digital design and modeling is an actual direction of industry development, which allows to develop and create competitive products that fully meet the market requirements in a short time. The basis of digital design is the development of digital counterparts of the product and production processes.
The idea of creating digital counterparts appeared in 2002 and belongs to University of Michigan Professor Michael Grives. However, digital twins have recently joined the leading trends of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Digital design technology has been most developed in industry, primarily in mechanical engineering.
With a digital twin, you can test and optimize design components in advance, even during the design phase of a product model or production line, and identify and correct any errors before commissioning. All this contributes to a significant reduction in start-up times and improved product quality.
International Data Corporation, a leading provider of information on the information technology market, estimates that today more than 5 billion users interact with data daily. By 2025 their number will increase to 6 billion, which will make up 75% of the world's population. And users of devices connected to the network will interact with data every 18 seconds.
The global data volume in 2018 was 33 zettabytes. It is predicted that by 2025 it will increase more than 5 times and reach 175 zettabytes. And 30% of these data will need to be processed in real time. Therefore, Big Data Analytics (Big Data Analytics) is one of the most pressing tasks in the era of digital transformation. Experts from the company Frost &Sullivan note that the largest amount of data for such analysis will generate industry, financial sector, health, retail and environmental protection.
The industry is among the top 5 industries that generate the largest volumes of data requiring analysis.
Big Data Machine builders need to improve business management efficiency. Using Big Data Analytics enables enterprises to:
The process of exponential development of information technologies, on the one hand, opens up unprecedented opportunities for enterprises - reducing the share of manual labor, increasing the safety of workplaces and the efficiency of enterprises in general.
On the other hand, the use of modern technologies and digitalization of production processes increases the probability of unauthorized access to enterprise data for the purpose of stealing money and confidential information or for the purpose of extortion.
Hacker attacks aimed at stealing money and extorting "traditional" victims have recently faced increased levels of database security and supporting infrastructure from accidental or deliberate exposure. That's why cybercriminals have to actively search for new, less secure targets.
Cyber security experts note that half of all attacks in recent years are against small businesses, with 60 percent of companies closing down within six months after such an attack;
It is difficult to assess the possibility of a threat from cybercriminals. It is even more difficult to make an objective assessment of the consequences of a potential cyber attack. According to experts on cyber security Cybersecurity Ventures, in 2018 the number of extortionists increased by 3.5 times. And if in 2016 cyber attacks in the world took place every 40 seconds, in 2019 - every 14 seconds, and by 2021 their frequency will increase to 11 seconds;
As the number of cyberattacks increases, so does the damage they cause. Experts estimate that the damage from extortion in 2021 will be 57 times higher than in 2015. If in 2018 the losses of companies amounted to 1.5 trillion dollars, by 2022 the amount of global damage from cybercrime may reach 8 trillion dollars.
Problems of information security, improvement of protection of information-communication infrastructure from unauthorized threats, the Government of Kazakhstan pays much attention - basic approaches to development of cyber security sphere were developed, unified requirements in the field of ICT and provision of information security were approved, the concept of "Cyber Security of Kazakhstan" was introduced.
According to experts of Kaspersky Lab ICS CERT, threat of possible cyberattacks is underestimated by industrial enterprises, that their automated control systems are not sufficiently protected from mass attacks and accidental infection. And the lack of a reliable protection system and qualified specialists in charge of information security make such enterprises an easy target for hackers who expect to get a ransom for unlocking their compromised systems. According to Cybersecurity Ventures experts, the industry is among the top 5 industries most frequently exposed to cyberattacks in the last 5 years. Therefore, industrial enterprises have to be prepared for the rapidly growing number and variety of threats, increasing interest in industrial enterprises from malefactors.
To prevent unauthorized access to information systems or to minimize the amount of damage in case of its occurrence, enterprises should not only take seriously the choice of means of protection of information bases, but also constantly improve the skills of the corresponding categories of specialists.
At present, the enterprises of Kazakhstan continue to feel the lack of specialists, providing the security of databases, and the demand for specialists on information protection will only increase every year.
Digitalization of production and processing of large volumes of data is one of the leading trends of the fourth industrial revolution. The implementation of this trend in enterprises is associated with Big Data analytics and machine learning, artificial intelligence and the Internet of things, additive technologies and digital twins.
The use of digital technologies allows the real-time collection of information from physical objects in the enterprise, digitization, artificial intelligence analysis, and transfer to the next stages to improve the efficiency of decision making.
Large-scale digital transformation of industries is increasingly becoming a reality through lower cost of technology and increased availability of high-speed data transfer.
Government of Kazakhstan pays great attention to development of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the country and introduction of digital innovations. The State program "Digital Kazakhstan" is a tool regulating the dissemination of digitalization in the country. The purpose of this program is to improve the socio-economic climate in the country through the use of digital technologies in the near future, as well as the formation of digital economy of the future in the long term;
In the World ICT Development Index 2017, Kazakhstan is ranked 52nd out of 176 countries.
Despite some improvement of Kazakhstan's position in the world rating of ICT Development Index, at present, the enterprises of the country still have a low degree of penetration of digital technologies. In mechanical engineering, digital technologies were used in production of products by 8% of enterprises, which is 4 times higher than the average level in the country.
The highest level of use of digital technologies in the manufacture of mechanical engineering products is observed at enterprises that produce computers, electronic and optical equipment.
The low level of use of digital technologies is primarily due to the fact that so far some manufacturers have erroneously associated digitalization not with the expansion of opportunities, but with high costs of its implementation and with the reduction of staff through automation of production.
The increasing influence of digitalization in business and society today is spoken of everywhere. But more and more often it has been stressed that production must be oriented towards consumers, who even in their daily activities are becoming increasingly dependent on innovative developments. Changing consumer preferences are forcing businesses to look for new opportunities and expand their product range. If yesterday a consumer dreamed about a washing vacuum cleaner, today he chooses a robot vacuum cleaner for himself. The same situation is observed in the automotive market, where electric cars are becoming popular.
Therefore, manufacturers have to react quickly to the changes in demand and make adjustments to the range of products. The change of consumer preferences, according to the industry experts, will have a strong impact on the development of domestic mechanical engineering in the next 10-15 years.
Today, there is a clear trend of transition of enterprises of various branches of economy to small-scale and custom-made production, where the individual wishes of customers are taken into account. Sometimes such products are produced in single copy.
Strengthening of production automation and robotization
Increase in remote control objects.
Increase in industrial data production volume.
Growth of equipment wear and tear in Kazakhstan's mining and metallurgical sector.
Service cost increase ("golden" service for new equipment).
Increase in consumption of composite materials
Expansion of capabilities (cyborgization) of analogue equipment.
Increase in the share of modular equipment repair.
Increasing demands on convenience, cleanliness and safety in production.
Transition of industry to continuous education.
The strengthening of global economic integration, opening of markets and reduction of interstate barriers involve Kazakhstan in the processes of global labor mobility. Metallurgical enterprises of Kazakhstan turn out to be participants of international competition for qualified personnel and experience a constant outflow of personnel. Under such conditions, the leading Kazakhstani metallurgical enterprises turn into training centers. Companies invest efforts in personnel training, and then they move to more economically attractive regions.
One of the central factors of population migration is migration for children. Children move to another country to study and parents follow them.
Today the territories compete for qualified personnel and creation of comfortable living conditions. This trend affects the structure of professions by the fact that it is necessary to develop living spaces and ensure the development of monocities around social factors: education of children, their training and return to monocities.
This trend is due to the fact that thanks to advances in the field of the Internet of things, artificial intelligence, development of measuring sensor systems, the equipment was able to take over a number of not only simple, but also complex functions that allow the equipment to regulate the production process itself. The integration and cooperation between man and machine ensures the efficiency of production and planning processes according to the principles of Industry 4.0.
The use of hardware with digital equipment to perform or improve actions that have traditionally been performed manually or with human-controlled equipment.
The consequence of technological progress is productivity growth, reduction of workers in traditional industries and direct job creation in high-tech industries. People are increasingly using smartphones, tablets and other portable electronic devices to work, conduct their financial affairs, provide security and heating of their homes, as well as for entertainment. Young people strive to maintain a familiar lifestyle in the workplace and are looking for jobs with a high content of creative work.
The prestige of industrial work in Kazakhstan is declining. Young people strive to get higher education (87.4%), believing that the diploma will provide more employment opportunities (72.3%).
The trend development necessitates the creation of professions aimed at preserving the older generation in industry. At the same time it is necessary to create a new generation of industrial professions in the republic, attractive for young people and to form a positive image of a person of labor. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Computer simulation of objects (reservoirs and other natural objects, industrial facilities and equipment), business processes, state of wells and production processes are being implemented in the oil and gas industry.
This trend is embodied in the following solutions: giga mesh modeling: high-precision reservoir simulator; three-dimensional modeling of wells and fields, modeling of near-wellbore zone display, modeling of business processes at fields, etc.
An unmanned aerial vehicles control oil and gas production workflows: perform inspection of critical facilities, geospatial and aerial photography maps, security and surveillance, as well as progress monitoring: Compared to traditional methods, drones can provide automation to speed up data collection with additional speed and accuracy during routine risky industrial inspections. Drones can be equipped with multiple payloads and sensors, depending on mission requirements or intended targets. High-quality and sophisticated control data can be obtained from critical and operational assets using, among other things, visual, thermal and lidar sensors and then analyzed and optimized to provide intelligent data and prescriptive data to stakeholders. Unmanned aerial vehicles are also used to deliver spare parts from warehouses directly to the fields. As an example, Aerodyne, a global provider of integrated drone-based managed solutions, has performed more than 45,000 drone missions and verified more than 201,500 critical assets in and large projects with a total development cost of $80 billion.
The number of decision-making points for field management is decreasing and will be reduced to an integrated operational control center (OCC), which will be similar to the control center at the airport, which manages the sequence of landings and takeoffs of aircraft. The concept of building a hierarchical control system for the oil and gas complex allocates four control levels:
The changes in the oil and gas industry lead to creation of the centers for management of search and exploration, drilling, development, operation, preparation, transport, processing and marketing of oil, gas and oil products, working in the real-time mode. In each major oil and gas company, the number of development control centers in RRW is growing rapidly. In BP, for example, their number has reached 10 and they control up to 42% of all hydrocarbon production.
Data collection, analysis and control commands are performed in real time.
In 2015 it is quarterly, in 2025 - monthly, in 2035 - weekly, in 2045 - daily data latency.
The speed of data transfer is also increasing. Thus, the data transfer rate for "smart" fields of the first generation was usually 10 Gbit/s. Construction of bottom antenna complexes will require even higher data transmission speed. It is expected that the volume of transmitted information will continue to grow to extremely large volumes. This will require the use of systems with higher data transfer rates of 40 and possibly 100 Gbit/s.
Customer is no longer a stranger in the process of creation. product.
The product is now created with his direct participation. The consumer is the co-author, tester and feedback source. Business customers and suppliers also want to have information about the status of the supply chain, the stage, readiness of the ordered product, etc.
In this regard, transparency of information flows is increasingly in demand in the world. The leader in this trend is IT-companies, but gradually this trend is gaining strength in other sectors of the economy, including oil and gas industry.
Transparency of information flows was formed in two subtrends:
.Tracing, managing and executing these transactions and exchanges has been a long, time consuming process with phone calls, emails, verification and approvals. Not only is the process now much more efficient and optimized, but the blockchain can be visualized so that the group gets a holistic view of the relationships. Individual companies-operators get their own perspective, for example, see how the numbers entering and leaving their company are on the way to the next stage of the process.
Cloud computing.
The cloud platform provides access to information to all interested parties. This helps eliminate duplication of documents and controls the status of their execution. Canadian company EPFC Corp has implemented cloud services Oracle Aconex in February 2017.
In case of necessity not only persons inside the organization can have access to information, but also interorganizational project groups.
The Aconex structure is "neutral", which means that each organization has its own secure space for internal cooperation as well as for simple interaction within the project with external organizations. It is also an open system; data can be linked to other systems through import/export or an application programming interface (API) that supports one comprehensive view of the entire project.
The aging of fields leads not only to a decline in income, but also to other negative consequences. Late oilfields are of lower quality, which leads to increased corrosion wear of oil and gas equipment. Crude oil delivered to refineries has higher unfavorable indicators: total acid number, in particular, caused by naphthenic acids, presence of hydrogen chloride, mercaptans and reagents used in oil transportation. Very unfavorable periodic decrease in the quality of raw materials. All this leads to tank leaks, fires, downtime related to equipment repairs.
The solution to the problem of corrosive wear is the strategy to increase the safety of equipment, based on the use of non-destructive control means to identify the stages of corrosion and types of the most corrosive raw materials. After identifying the problem points, a set of anticorrosive measures is selected, primarily using anticorrosive materials.
Reducing the use of carbon steel in favor of stainless steel improves the vitality of equipment exposed to naphthenic acids. The corrosion resistance is also affected by the flow rate, the configuration of the pipeline. High speed, reduced diameter activates the naphthenic acid molecules.
Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry is diversifying. Instead of producing and exporting crude oil, production of other oil products, including those from alternative sources, is increasing. Nomenclature of production from oil, in particular, propane, polymers, etc. is increasing.
Technical gases are used in various industrial sectors. These gases include ordinary air, carbon dioxide, acetylene, helium, hydrogen, etc. They are used in a variety of industries. Their scope of application is wide. They are used in industrial equipment, industrial and water boilers. In the production and processing of hydrocarbons are also used technical gases: nitrogen, hydrogen.
The advent of electricity makes the equipment more and more autonomous, i.e. the person working on it may not directly operate with buttons, pedals and levers, but may transmit certain algorithms of action. Also, the equipment has an increasing variability of response to different situations, learns to recognize different production situations, choose the right algorithm for action and even build these algorithms by yourself.
The autonomy is further enhanced by integrating remote industrial devices with each other. The phenomenon is called Industrial Internet Things (IoT).
Thanking to the integration of devices: sensors of information gathering from industrial objects, platforms of analytics and data processing and control equipment among themselves, it is possible to react quickly to changes in the production process and make corrective decisions, while being at a distance from the object.
Industrial Internet of oil and gas industry things is implemented in the following solutions. Oil and gas platforms of industrial Internet of things, equipped with sensors, actuators, sensors, information transfer channels. Systems of intellectual monitoring of object state. Tracking the health status of machines and mechanisms. Monitoring of hazardous areas and production results.
Robotic drilling systems. Autonomous systems that perform drilling without human involvement. By 2025-2035 the transition to fully automated and unmanned technologies at new offshore oil and gas fields is expected.
The devices help detect abnormal changes in temperature, pressure, etc. on rigs, wells, etc. Thus, the first generation of intelligent wells contains about 100 borehole sensors and transmits data volume of about 106 megabytes per year. The second generation of smart wells already contains more than 10 000 borehole sensors, which are spirally located at a distance of 1 cm from each other and record all pipe stresses, temperature, pressure. The second generation smart well will allow monitoring and control of reserves development throughout the entire life cycle of an oil and gas field. Smart wells of the second generation transmit about 109 gigabytes of data per year. Smart wells of the third generation contain about 100,000 well sensors and transmit about 1012 terabytes of data per year.
Engineers receive troubleshooting signals on their smart mobiles devices. The 3D printing operator processes the data to create 3D files, then prints spare parts and tools. Existing technologies already allow printing parts made of nylon material with a tolerance of 50 microns. Ready-made spare parts copters from warehouses to wells.
3D printing is also used to design objects under construction. Such project was implemented by the National Oil Company in the United Arab Emirates.
Technological and social changes in the country have formed requirements to the qualification profile of the oil and gas industry worker. Growing demand for retraining of personnel in the gas industry of Kazakhstan (equipment repair and maintenance, remote management and maintenance, IT skills, data analysis and processing, polypropylene production technology). Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry is increasing the depth of oil processing and, accordingly, the requirements to knowledge of oil products production technology are increasing. Global automation of economy leads to production of equipment that is controlled remotely without human involvement.
Digitalization allows using for organization and production unprecedented volumes of data. For the employees of oil and gas industry there are new tasks that have not been solved before, which require new skills and competences. Increase of the share of equipment with software control requires from operators knowledge of programming basics and other IT skills for equipment adjustment and management. In the oil and gas industry of Kazakhstan there is a growing demand for workers who know Russian and English languages.
In most cases, the equipment purchased by enterprises has operating manuals in English and Russian. Young workers replacing the older generation do not have sufficient knowledge of these languages and are not always able to read and understand the manual.
Recently, it has been stressed more and more that companies providing services to the public should be oriented towards consumers, their needs, habits and wishes. For companies, this means finding new opportunities, expanding the range of services and improving service quality to meet the new needs of their customers. Those companies, which will not catch this trend and will not change, are likely to find themselves at some point unclaimed in the market.
Rest of tourists is undergoing a constant transformation. Tourists today travel much more often, prefer short tours to less popular cities, book places not in an elite hotel, but in a small cozy house. Unusual types of travel begin to enjoy great popularity: adventure tourism, extreme tourism.
The increased interest in the world begins to use space tourism - visiting the closed space launch pads. For Kazakhstan, the development of space tourism may become a new and unique destination, and the prerequisites for its development in our country are huge. Moreover, the Government of Kazakhstan pays much attention to space tourism development.
Today, modern tourists have more opportunities than ever, so ensuring loyalty and satisfaction becomes an important direction of tourism industry development. Strategies and technology available to the participants of the tourism market play an important role in creating positive consumer experience.
From chat bots, which are used to book a trip, to the proposed food, intelligent devices in the hotel room and augmented reality applications that help guests to navigate to their destinations - all this is associated with improving the customer's perception of their journey or stay.
All this is reflected, changing the appearance of tourist infrastructure, range of services and quality of their provision.
Big Data Analytics is one of the most pressing challenges in the era of digital transformation. According to experts from International Data Corporation, today more than 5 billion users interact with data every day. By 2025 their number will increase to 6 billion, which will account for 75 percent of the world's population. And users of devices connected to the network will interact with the data every 18 seconds.
It is projected that by 2025, global data volume will more than 5 times increase from 2018 to 175 zettabytes.
By analyzing data from past travel experiences, hotels and travel companies can provide individualized advice and greatly assist in the decision making process by dividing travelers by several criteria, such as: preference for cost or preferred destination, interests, and more. This helps to create personalized marketing and advertising campaigns for each segment and opens up more opportunities for doing and developing business.
Big Data in the tourism industry is necessary to improve the efficiency of service delivery as well as in the stages of attracting potential travelers. Using Big Data Analytics allows:
Automation and robotization is rapidly winning the global travel business, allowing companies to significantly save resources and optimize management processes. Automation of travel agents, tour operators mainly comes down to the introduction of digitalization, such as the use of chat bots, which with simple questions help customers to find and book tours, transport and accommodation. Looking at automated solutions for hotel business, we can highlight such leading areas as providing comfortable accommodation for guests and automation of hotel staff, which are solved by the introduction of various artificial intelligence devices, the Internet of things and robotization;
Automation of services in hotels is beginning to gain a leading position. It is already difficult to imagine a hotel without a "smart" air conditioner or switch, which are activated by voice control, without an electronic lock that opens without a key;
Full hotel automation allows staff to remotely monitor equipment and ensure the safety of guests;
Therefore, Kazakhstani hoteliers need to actively adopt the experience of world market leaders, maximizing the implementation of automated solutions in their activities, as well as to train personnel capable of controlling these devices;
It is too early to speak about large-scale introduction of robots in Kazakhstan hotels. However, already today 1% of Kazakhstan hotels are equipped with robotic devices that provide services.
Time also does not stand still, as well as technical progress. And maybe in 10-15 years, or maybe before that, we will hear about our first robot receptionist.
An important part of tourism services is the trip itself, for which the trip is organized. The global tourism industry has recently seen an increase in demand for virtual travel, with which you can, even in your apartment, "visit" any corner of the world. Of course, virtual tourism will never replace traditional recreation, but more and more will be an important component of the range of tourist services.
For the development of virtual tourism requires a large-scale distribution, the latest technologies of virtual and augmented reality. The introduction of these technologies will allow you to visit the virtual exposition of the Doge's Palace in Venice, as if under a magnifying glass looking at each presented canvas, to witness the eruption of Vesuvius, to learn what the ancient ruins of Greece used to look like and to take a ride on the African savannah of Serengeti without leaving home, but feeling the effect of real presence in these places.
The strategic priority for most countries in recent years has been the concept of transition to sustainable development - integrating environmental security with balanced economic development.
Acceleration of this process is facilitated by using potential of newest technologies, which not only reduce negative impact on environment, but also increase efficiency of natural resources use;
Experts estimate that tourism accounts for 5 percent of global CO2 emissions, 40 percent of which belong to air travel, 20 percent to hotels and other temporary accommodation, and another 40 percent to other modes of transport and leisure services. Modern travelers are more environmentally friendly than ever. They prefer hiking to travel by car, eat only natural products, and take care of the environment. Airlines, tour operators, car rental companies, hotels have also picked up the theme of eco-friendliness and started to develop their business in this direction.
For example, car rental companies already offer, and sometimes specialize in electric cars and bicycle transport. Hotels and resorts with an emphasis on energy-saving technologies are appearing all over the world.
The main difference between eco-friendly hotels and traditional ones is that they are located where guests can relax in the fresh air, offer natural products, and only environmentally friendly materials are used in room decoration.
In the world tourism industry there are known such hotels, where there is no opportunity to use cellular communication, and sometimes electricity, where water is heated by sunlight and personal hygiene products are used, which do not harm the environment.
Healthy lifestyles and informed food choices are also becoming a global trend. People today take their health more seriously, plan their diets properly, and when they travel, they also want to stick to it.
The travel industry cannot stand aside and ignore the impact of this trend. Therefore, for this category of customers, travel companies develop proposals focused on including in the diet only healthy, natural and fresh products, as well as offer separate nutrition for those on special diets.
Ecotourism, nature tours - popular destinations both around the world and in our country. Annually, the number of tourists who prefer to relax in environmentally friendly areas is increasing multiple times. According to the report "Global trends in search queries", submitted by the International Independent Institute of Agrarian Policy (INAP), the number of queries related to eco-tourism and nature recreation in search engines has a tendency to grow.
Thus, the number of inquiries "fishing on the lake" has increased 2.7 times, "travel to nature" - 2.5 times, "geological excursion" - 1.9 times, "agrotourism" - 57%, "travel with zero waste" - 48%, and "environmentally friendly cities" - 38%.
In ecological tourism, everything is subject to the principles of naturalness and respect for nature, from the use of environmentally friendly materials in the construction of guest houses, to rejection of plastic and even cellular communication.
Acquaintance with the life of the nations inhabiting this or that area, with their habits, traditions and rites, is becoming more and more popular type of tourism among travelers. Going on such a trip, a tourist wants to learn how to set up a yurt, learn the secrets of Becrutchi hunting, to take part in the wedding ceremony of the bride's wires. He is interested in learning everything that is significantly different from his daily life.
Agrarian tourism, gaining popularity in the domestic tourism industry, allows tourists to visit livestock farms, walk in the apple or vineyard, taking part in the harvest.
Whereas previously travelers tried to stay within the resort, consume familiar food, and communicate mainly with their compatriots, modern travelers now seek to communicate with the people, cultures and landscapes of the countries they visit.
Local food is a key feature of many trips, people are eager to try something new. Cultural experience is the culmination of many travels, and modern travelers strive to witness and participate in the traditional rites and holidays of the people living in a particular area.
Modern pensioners, especially from developed countries, are increasingly paying attention to active recreation and travel. This puts the industry in front of the need to develop a range of services for age customers, who often need support, special services, including medical. According to the publication Booking.com, a leader in the global market of online travel booking, 64% of respondents from Russia, consider travel after a well-deserved vacation a wonderful option to diversify your free time. And since the citizens of the Russian Federation make up the largest proportion of visitors in the framework of inbound tourism, the domestic companies of tourism industry should pay serious attention to the development of this trend.
A special place in tourism has become given to people with disabilities in terms of health. This category of population is becoming more and more socially active, that is why the infrastructure of tourist objects should be equipped with all necessary devices for the development of tourism accessible to all.
The wide spread of modern information technologies and increase in the number of Internet users, has significantly influenced the development of e-commerce. In spite of the fact that the share of electronic sales in the total volume of retail trade is small - only 1.4%, its growth in recent years is about 40% on average. Independent booking of tours, tickets and hotel rooms is becoming more and more popular, especially among the younger generation.
Already today tourists can book and pay for their trip in a few minutes, without leaving home, on an online travel platform, where all the leading players in the tourism industry (air carriers, hotels, tour operators, entertainment facilities, etc.) are represented.
In the coming years, the number of online travel platforms and the popularity of booking tours and tickets using the Internet will only grow, because it is easier to choose a tour, it is possible to compare the actual cost of services from different tour operators and buy the most advantageous package, saving a lot of money and spending the minimum amount of time.
Examples include targeted ads or ads that appear in a potential traveler's web browser. They may be offered discounts on airline tickets, hotel rooms, and useful tips, depending on what they have been most interested in recently.
Actively developing in recent years services of online travel platforms, have at their disposal such a portrait of a potential tourist, which allows you to instantly issue the most suitable offers of tourist destinations.
Information for such a portrait is collected based on the most frequently visited tourist sites or thematic groups in social networks, previous travels, his hobbies and interests. Such services also have information at their disposal about whether a particular potential tourist likes to watch movies at home with his family or prefers to go to another city or even a country to the World Cup finals. Sometimes it seems that the service of such a platform understands more about what a tourist wants than he himself.
"Smart" functionality of the developed personal gadgets allows analyzing the available amounts in the traveler's accounts; is everything okay with his documents; where you can buy discount tickets; which hotels this season have the best price offer; what to see, where to go; what the weather will be and a million more important characteristics. Here you can also pay for the formed package of services.
When choosing a hotel room, a tourist, with the help of the built-in virtual service, has the possibility to look through the rooms, free at the moment of travel, choosing the most comfortable for himself, up to the color of the walls and the curtain on the windows.
Previously, most often went on vacation by families or small companies. Although this is still relevant for many, more and more people prefer to travel on their own. Travelling alone is no longer something unusual, and tourist trends increasingly reflect this. According to the report "Global trends in search queries", submitted by INIAP, the number of queries in the search engines "Single Travel" for the period from 2020 increased by 49%. The needs of individual travelers are diverse. Some simply want to travel without distracting a travel companion.
Others use this opportunity to expand their circle of friends and sometimes as an alternative to traditional care for the elderly. This trend in tourism, according to experts, will grow and develop.
There are many more people working remotely today than a few years ago. And that trend will only increase, with Skype and similar video conferencing apps proving that you don't have to be in the same room to effectively meet with colleagues or negotiate with customers.
Thanks to breakthroughs in these technologies, the concept of traveling with work is becoming a form of personalized travel. The so-called phenomenon of "digital nomad". Freelancers, the number of which is also growing, or hired workers with remote mode of work, not tied to a particular workplace, can freely travel around the world with a laptop. This type of tourism is particularly common among the millennium generation.
The tourism industry is actively starting to use elements of e-commerce in its activities. It is now possible to book and pay for tours from anywhere in the world without leaving home, transfer from the airport, book plane tickets or cultural events, choose a suitable hotel room.
The introduction of e-commerce improves the quality of services, reduces the time of customer service, expands the range of services provided. The newest technologies allow to create new ways of marketing promotion of tourist product on the market, for example, to organize personalized mailing of advertising cases to e-mail addresses of potential tourists.
Travel agency information systems allow collecting, structuring and storing information about tours, resorts, hotels, transport companies, as well as about preferences of potential tourists, collected on the basis of their purchases and most frequently visited sites.
Multimedia technologies are used to issue digital booklets and catalogs, which provide an opportunity to virtually navigate through the proposed routes, which allows the most accurate selection of the package.
Innovations in the field of new equipment and hardware complexes are the second key driver of TLC development in modern and perspective conditions. Distribution of robots, infrastructure of smart sensors within the limits of IoT, unmanned and autonomous transport, additive technologies and other advanced achievements of technical progress open boundless horizons for transport and logistics industry.
An increasing niche in the transport market will be occupied by unmanned and autonomous vehicles. transport. First of all, in the segment of cargo transportation, and in all sectors of TLC, including air and water transport. AI and machine vision, as well as acceleration of data exchange and interaction between different units make it possible to move unmanned on the scale of any traffic and in any conditions. The use of drones also simplifies many storage and logistics operations. For the latter, they begin to play a special role in the "last mile section". According to analysts Gartner by 2023, the total number of drones in the world will exceed 745.5 thousand units. This is 5.4 times more than in 2018 and 2.2 times more than in the past. A significant factor behind the delay in the distribution of these types of transport is the lag in regulatory policy. As of November 2019, no country in the world has adopted the necessary NAPs regulating this sphere. By the way, some progress in this direction has already been made. Thus, in December 2019, the authorities The State of California (USA) has granted permission to use unmanned cargo vehicles weighing up to 4.5 tons on public roads.
Meanwhile, unmanned and autonomous transport is developing in all segments of TLC, not only in the automotive industry. This makes the problem of creating the necessary legal and regulatory framework extremely relevant on a global scale.
This is an important factor in the transformation of the industry - the tightening of environmental requirements and regulations. Ecologization affects all spheres of human activity and, above all, his movements. In recent decades, this process has been one of the most important factors having a direct impact on changes in many sectors of the economy, as well as society as a whole.
The transport sector produces the bulk of emissions of harmful substances into the environment. For example, in the Russian Federation, motor transport accounts for about 90% of all emissions entering the atmosphere. The development of alternative and eco transport, as well as "green" logistics, is a natural consequence of the increased interest of states and society in reducing environmental pollution.
Electric cars, hybrids, cars on hydrogen and biofuels and other types of "green" transport are gaining popularity all over the world, but first of all in developed countries, where along with them there is a whole culture of ecologization of TLC, which includes the stimulation of alternative transport operation. The ecologization trend is closely connected with the depletion of traditional natural resources and development of new energy supply technologies. The search for new types of fuel with a minimum volume of produced emissions against the background of maximization of beneficial effect is one of the key areas of transport engineering both in the segment of land and air and water transport.
Already now the ecosystem of alternative and eco-transport provision is actively developing, based on the expansion of the supply infrastructure: filling stations, service stations, storage docks, etc.
The man of the XXI century will live in the new digital reality. The level of his interaction with a variety of IT is constantly growing. The number of gadgets, which are used by modern youth every day and the amount of time they devote to technology is steadily growing.
Generations Y and Z is a completely new mass mental, cultural and socio-economic paradigm. For those born after 1995, the world looks different and they perceive it differently. It is not the brand, title or loud history that matters to them, but the culture and experience built around it. Generations Y and Z in the next 15 years will be the engines of progress, social and economic. In addition, there is a need for the development of cultural, scientific, technical, and technological resources. And they will determine the market reality. This is a mobile, flexible, socially active layer of society, inextricably linked with IT. And its influence on the development of all sectors of the economy and labor market can hardly be overestimated.
Requipment in the field of software is becoming more and more important for the transport and logistics sphere. Digitalization helps reduce time and financial costs, improve security, optimize staff, reduce human error, improve control and coordination, streamline processes, etc.
For example, the introduction of the Internet of things, cloud technology and blockage allows you to largely automate warehouse operations, document management, forwarding and monitoring of transportation of mutual payments with counterparties, the process of identifying the authenticity of products, improve the transparency of transportation, freight and delivery, inventory and other key operations.
On the one hand, humanity continues to be a consumer society. The demands and interests of the majority vary within the limits of meeting personal or microsocial needs, with the maximization of personal comfort. On the other hand, there is still a certain transformation of values. First of all, it concerns young people, who now have open access to education, technology, have a wide range of horizons, almost unlimited opportunities for movement. All this stimulates a shift in mass psychology. Young people see problems, are actively involved in their solution. As a result, a new type of society is being formed.
Socio-economic development and technological progress have led to the growth of living standards for the majority of the planet population. Human needs are no longer limited to a standard set that meets basic instincts.
We have become selective and picky. We make more and more decisions based on their impact on the dynamics of comfort and convenience in our lives. Our preferences are becoming more complex, diverse, and sophisticated. During the coronavirus pandemic, these changes began to be particularly evident. For example, now we do not want to waste time and energy on a trip to the supermarket. After all, everyone can deliver us. And we will get online comprehensive information about the goods, we will be able to pay for them, share our opinion about them, etc.
The popularization of the shering economy leads to fundamental changes in the business models of transport and logistics companies. Shering in the logistics sphere gives an opportunity to reduce expenses on transport, warehousing, optimize staff and save time at different stages of transportation.
This is an opportunity for customers to significantly reduce the time of delivery, as well as its cost, in which up to 40% is formed due to transportation costs. Their optimization through shering will allow to significantly reduce the prices for transportation. Besides, the tendency of persuasion reduces the number of intermediaries, which also contributes to the reduction of the cost of transportation services.
